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Illinois Doesn’t Have a Revenue Problem, It Has a Management Problem. Illinois families are used to hearing the same explanation whenever something goes wrong in state government: we just need more money.
Yet Illinois already has one of the highest overall tax burdens in the country, and state spending continues to grow year after year. This year’s budget again expands spending and government programs.
So if government keeps getting bigger, why do basic services keep getting worse?
The answer is simple: Illinois doesn’t just have a spending problem. It has a management problem.
Across multiple state agencies, a troubling pattern continues to emerge; delayed services, poor oversight, and failures that affect real people across our state.
At the Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation (IDFPR), healthcare professionals are waiting months for licenses that should be processed quickly and efficiently. In a state already facing shortages of medical providers, these delays prevent qualified professionals from working and push many to neighboring states where the process is faster.
Other agencies have faced serious breakdowns as well.
At the Department of Children and Family Services, the agency continues to struggle to protect vulnerable children while families have reported abuse, babies being removed from parents based on questionable information and death.
At the Department of Corrections, operational issues continue to create unsafe conditions for both staff and inmates.
And more than 900 lawsuits have been filed alleging abuse within Illinois Department of Juvenile Justice facilities, a troubling failure of oversight in a system responsible for protecting young people.
These examples involve different agencies, but they point to the same underlying issue: state government that isn’t being effectively managed.
From unemployment fraud to licensing delays to child welfare failures, Illinois residents are seeing government fall short on some of its most basic responsibilities.
When government stops functioning properly, people lose trust in the institutions meant to serve them. And when that trust disappears, people begin looking elsewhere for opportunity and stability. In Illinois, that too often means families and workers leaving the state altogether.
This is especially frustrating because Illinois government is not shrinking, it’s expanding. Each year brings new programs, new initiatives, and higher spending.
But good government isn’t measured by how many programs are announced. It’s measured by whether government can deliver results.
And that starts with a Governor who will take accountability and focus on fixing what’s broken.
BUDGET
CGFA releases three-year budget forecast. The Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA) is the budget watchdog agency within the Illinois General Assembly. It is mandated by statute to generate annual three-year budget forecasts. The CGFA budget forecast for FY27 – FY29, released this week, is a nonpartisan look at what lies ahead for Illinois’ economy and its State budgets over this three-year period.
The CGFA three-year forecast confirms Illinois is currently running a worsening structural budget deficit. This deficit is driven by compounded increases in the costs generated by medical and health care spending, public employee pensions, and non-health-care social spending such as subsidies for child care. These increases are not based on new promises that may be made in the future by Gov. Pritzker or other Illinois Democrats; they are based on programs that are already in place (many of which are newly created or expanded) that carry cost burdens that increase every year. In many cases, these increases are “locked in.” For example, the State of Illinois is mandated to provide medical care to Medicaid recipients that reflects best medical practices, and the State is mandated to pay pensions to persons such as public schoolteachers who have vested State-system pension status.
Based on the established trend line of State of Illinois annual spending increases, a line which over the past 20 years (since the time of former Gov. Blagojevich) has increased at a steady rate of 3.9%/year, Illinois will face a budget deficit of $1.779 billion in FY27, the fiscal year that starts on July 1, 2026. This deficit is forecasted to grow to $2.550 billion in FY28 and will grow further to $3.536 billion in FY29. All of these deficit numbers are based on comparing State trendline spending growth levels with the cash flows that can reasonably be yielded during this three-year period from State income taxes, sales taxes, and other taxes. The accumulated deficit that would accrue by the end of this three-year period, reflecting the sum total of each year’s individual deficit plus our State’s current bill backlog, is expected to be $8.423 billion.
The projected $8.4 billion deficit that will accrue over this three-year period could be closed or alleviated in any of these three ways:
o Enacting a massive tax hike, or set of tax hikes, to raise an additional $8.4 billion over this time period;
o Slow-paying the State’s bills and debts, so that entities – such as hospitals, medical clinics, and child-care facilities that have sold goods and services to the State of Illinois, must wait for their money; or
o Taking a hard look at the State of Illinois’ existing spending commitments and cutting some of these spending lines so that they match the actual economic growth patterns and tax revenues generated by our State’s hard-working taxpayers.
· State employee healthcare cost report
One of the largest cost drivers of the ever-increasing Springfield budget trendline is the cost of providing work-related health care benefits to State employees and retirees. With the goal of maintaining controls over this cost driver, the General Assembly has asked CGFA to examine and estimate the liabilities of the State Employees’ Group Insurance Program (SEGIP). Because of the size of this cost line, CGFA has begun to carry out this exercise annually.
CGFA’s findings continue to confirm that public sector healthcare costs are one of the major reasons why the State’s needs for cash continue to grow faster then the State’s economy as a whole. Based on current worldwide data points, Illinois’ overall economy – its production of what is called our “gross state product” – is expected to grow only 1.1% in FY27 over FY26. Our State’s general funds spending pressures are likely to grow by 3.9% in FY27, in line with Springfield’s 20-year trendline. All by itself, this creates a 280-basis point gap.
CGFA’s March 2026 report on SEGIP continues to show that the health care costs of State employees and retirees are increasing even faster than this aggressive general timeline. CGFA projects that this overall public-sector health care spend will increase by 9.0% in FY27. This increase will be much larger than the growth in the Illinois economy in the same period.
The CGFA study indicates that the State’s SEGIP-related budget allocation will have to be $4.6 billion in FY27, up $379.9 million from FY26. Illinois’ SEGIP health care costs have gone up at rates approaching or exceeding 10%/year for many years.
JOBS
Hyundai Translead announcement for Will County. Hyundai Translead announced their intent to reopen two closed-down Illinois factory complexes, creating up to 2,500 jobs in Will County. Translead, a San Diego-based subsidiary of one of South Korea’s largest industrial manufacturers, assembles gear for Class 8 transport trucks. The firm specializes in dry and refrigerated truck trailers, flatbeds, truck bodies, and trailer-cart dollies.
This announcement could bring new life to the former Caterpillar manufacturing complex in southern Joliet and the former Lion Electric plant in Channahon. The former Caterpillar plant closed in 2019, and the former Lion Electric plant closed in 2024. The Hyundai Translead announcement was made on Tuesday, March 17.
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Rep. Sheehan Introduces the Law Enforcement Mental Health Leave Act to Support Officers After Traumatic Events. State Representative Patrick Sheehan, a veteran police officer with nearly two decades of service, has introduced HB 4715, the Law Enforcement Mental Health Leave Act, to ensure Illinois law enforcement officers have guaranteed access to paid mental health leave following traumatic incidents encountered in the line of duty.
“Law Enforcement officers see things every day that most people never have to experience in their entire lives,” said Rep. Sheehan. “When an officer goes through a traumatic event, we owe them the basic support needed to recover and continue serving safely. HB 4715 is one way we can help protect the men and women who protect us.”
HB 4715 establishes a statewide standard granting officers five days of paid mental health leave within a 12‑month period when they experience a mental illness resulting from a traumatic event. The bill requires every law enforcement agency in Illinois to adopt a clear, confidential mental health leave policy and prohibits retaliation against officers who use the leave they are entitled to. This bill also extends these protections to campus police officers, Department of Corrections and Department of Juvenile Justice employees, and local correctional staff who routinely face high‑stress, high‑risk situations.
The bill further supports the well‑being of law‑enforcement professionals by making clear that no officer will face punishment for seeking mental‑health care. This safeguard ensures an officer’s job and dignity remain protected.
Under the legislation, a “traumatic event” includes officer‑involved shootings, in‑custody deaths, multiple‑casualty incidents, serious injuries or deaths of officers or civilians, and other events that cause significant emotional or psychological harm.
PUBLIC SAFETY
Why Won’t Governor Pritzker Take Transit Safety Seriously? The U.S. Department of Transportation has launched an investigation into how the Illinois Department of Transportation is handling safety on the CTA. Governor Pritzker may dismiss it as a “sham,” but Chicago residents know the reality. Violent crime on public transit has surged, and meaningful intervention is long overdue.
Consider just a few of the recent incidents:
o Last November, a woman was set on fire on a CTA train.
o Weeks later, an elderly man was brutally attacked and knocked onto the tracks.
o In December of last year, a man was severely beaten on a CTA bus and spent Christmas Eve in a hospital bed.
o That same month, another individual set himself on fire on the Blue Line.
o Earlier this year, an international student from India was robbed on a CTA train and is now considering leaving the city because he no longer feels safe.
o In the same month, a man filmed himself fatally stabbing another passenger on a CTA train.
o Just last week, a bus driver was violently assaulted while in uniform.
Crime on the poorly managed CTA system is not a new problem. Yet when Democrats had the opportunity to address public safety in their mass transit bailout legislation, their solution was to deploy unarmed “transit ambassadors” instead of strengthening law enforcement presence.
Only after the threat of withheld federal funding did the CTA move to bring in additional patrol support from the Cook County Sheriff’s Office. That should not be what it takes to finally prioritize rider safety.
This federal investigation is not a sham. It is a necessary step to restore accountability and protect commuters. While Governor Pritzker downplays the crisis, House Republicans are working to deliver real public safety solutions. They have introduced more than 40 proposals to fix the broken SAFE-T Act and ensure repeat violent offenders are held behind bars instead of cycling back onto the streets and transit system.
Chicago families deserve to feel safe on their way to work, school, and home. It is past time for state leaders to take that responsibility seriously.
TAXES
Voters say Illinois students should benefit from scholarships. Illinois voters overwhelmingly sent a message to Gov. J.B. Pritzker in the March 17 primary election: They want him to opt into the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit program.
Residents in all or part of 31 Illinois counties had the opportunity to vote on whether they think the state’s students should benefit from the new program, which allows for donor-provided education money.
A resounding 135,000 Illinoisans — over 63% of the vote total on the question as of Wednesday morning — had registered their support for participating. In every place in which the non-binding referendum question was on the ballot, a majority favored opting into the program.
In most of those locations the question was: “Should Illinois opt into a federal program that would provide public K-12, private school, and homeschool students with privately donated funds for academic needs, such as tutoring and test preparation, educational therapies for students with disabilities, tuition, books, exam fees or for other specified academic needs?”
While the results do not opt Illinois into the program, they send a strong message to Pritzker that he should do so.
Opting in means Illinois students struggling in reading or math could start receiving extra funding next year for tutoring and other academic services. The program will give a dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit up to $1,700 each year for donations to non-profit scholarship-granting organizations.
But Illinois students can receive the money only if Pritzker opts the state into the program. If he ignores voters, taxpayers still can receive the federal tax credit for donating to students in other states.
Illinois voters in the primary made their position clear. Pritzker should listen and opt into the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit program.
This announcement could bring new life to the former Caterpillar manufacturing complex in southern Joliet and the former Lion Electric plant in Channahon. The former Caterpillar plant closed in 2019, and the former Lion Electric plant closed in 2024. The Hyundai Translead announcement was made on Tuesday, March 17.
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Rep. Sheehan Introduces the Law Enforcement Mental Health Leave Act to Support Officers After Traumatic Events. State Representative Patrick Sheehan, a veteran police officer with nearly two decades of service, has introduced HB 4715, the Law Enforcement Mental Health Leave Act, to ensure Illinois law enforcement officers have guaranteed access to paid mental health leave following traumatic incidents encountered in the line of duty.
“Law Enforcement officers see things every day that most people never have to experience in their entire lives,” said Rep. Sheehan. “When an officer goes through a traumatic event, we owe them the basic support needed to recover and continue serving safely. HB 4715 is one way we can help protect the men and women who protect us.”
HB 4715 establishes a statewide standard granting officers five days of paid mental health leave within a 12‑month period when they experience a mental illness resulting from a traumatic event. The bill requires every law enforcement agency in Illinois to adopt a clear, confidential mental health leave policy and prohibits retaliation against officers who use the leave they are entitled to. This bill also extends these protections to campus police officers, Department of Corrections and Department of Juvenile Justice employees, and local correctional staff who routinely face high‑stress, high‑risk situations.
The bill further supports the well‑being of law‑enforcement professionals by making clear that no officer will face punishment for seeking mental‑health care. This safeguard ensures an officer’s job and dignity remain protected.
Under the legislation, a “traumatic event” includes officer‑involved shootings, in‑custody deaths, multiple‑casualty incidents, serious injuries or deaths of officers or civilians, and other events that cause significant emotional or psychological harm.
PUBLIC SAFETY
Why Won’t Governor Pritzker Take Transit Safety Seriously? The U.S. Department of Transportation has launched an investigation into how the Illinois Department of Transportation is handling safety on the CTA. Governor Pritzker may dismiss it as a “sham,” but Chicago residents know the reality. Violent crime on public transit has surged, and meaningful intervention is long overdue.
Consider just a few of the recent incidents:
o Last November, a woman was set on fire on a CTA train.
o Weeks later, an elderly man was brutally attacked and knocked onto the tracks.
o In December of last year, a man was severely beaten on a CTA bus and spent Christmas Eve in a hospital bed.
o That same month, another individual set himself on fire on the Blue Line.
o Earlier this year, an international student from India was robbed on a CTA train and is now considering leaving the city because he no longer feels safe.
o In the same month, a man filmed himself fatally stabbing another passenger on a CTA train.
o Just last week, a bus driver was violently assaulted while in uniform.
Crime on the poorly managed CTA system is not a new problem. Yet when Democrats had the opportunity to address public safety in their mass transit bailout legislation, their solution was to deploy unarmed “transit ambassadors” instead of strengthening law enforcement presence.
Only after the threat of withheld federal funding did the CTA move to bring in additional patrol support from the Cook County Sheriff’s Office. That should not be what it takes to finally prioritize rider safety.
This federal investigation is not a sham. It is a necessary step to restore accountability and protect commuters. While Governor Pritzker downplays the crisis, House Republicans are working to deliver real public safety solutions. They have introduced more than 40 proposals to fix the broken SAFE-T Act and ensure repeat violent offenders are held behind bars instead of cycling back onto the streets and transit system.
Chicago families deserve to feel safe on their way to work, school, and home. It is past time for state leaders to take that responsibility seriously.
TAXES
Voters say Illinois students should benefit from scholarships. Illinois voters overwhelmingly sent a message to Gov. J.B. Pritzker in the March 17 primary election: They want him to opt into the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit program.
Residents in all or part of 31 Illinois counties had the opportunity to vote on whether they think the state’s students should benefit from the new program, which allows for donor-provided education money.
A resounding 135,000 Illinoisans — over 63% of the vote total on the question as of Wednesday morning — had registered their support for participating. In every place in which the non-binding referendum question was on the ballot, a majority favored opting into the program.
In most of those locations the question was: “Should Illinois opt into a federal program that would provide public K-12, private school, and homeschool students with privately donated funds for academic needs, such as tutoring and test preparation, educational therapies for students with disabilities, tuition, books, exam fees or for other specified academic needs?”
While the results do not opt Illinois into the program, they send a strong message to Pritzker that he should do so.
Opting in means Illinois students struggling in reading or math could start receiving extra funding next year for tutoring and other academic services. The program will give a dollar-for-dollar federal tax credit up to $1,700 each year for donations to non-profit scholarship-granting organizations.
But Illinois students can receive the money only if Pritzker opts the state into the program. If he ignores voters, taxpayers still can receive the federal tax credit for donating to students in other states.
Illinois voters in the primary made their position clear. Pritzker should listen and opt into the Federal Scholarship Tax Credit program.